Table of Contents 

• Introduction: Context on decertification 
• What is decertification? Definition and background 
• Implications for Colombia: Political, economic and diplomatic 
• Impact on international trade: Indirect risks and barriers 
• Data analysis 2025: Exports, imports and investment 
• Sectors most exposed: Oil, gold, flowers, coffee and bananas 
• Business vulnerability: Failure to utilize mechanisms 
• Recommended measures: Certifications, diversification, and insurance 
• Private sector diplomacy: A key role in mitigating risks 
• Historical precedent: Samper government: Previous consequences 
• International perspective: Possible decisions by the U.S. government 
• BRICS and further tensions: New tariffs announced by Trump 
• Strategic role of the U.S. Bilateral relationship and economic cooperation 
• Colombia's trade strengths: Free Trade Agreement, Vallejo Plan, free trade zones 
• Final recommendations: Business resilience 
• Conclusion: Business vision and strategic action 

Decertification, known as Major's List In English, it is a mechanism contemplated in the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (amended in 1986, 1988 and later), through which the President of the United States annually evaluates the efforts of countries considered producers or transit routes of illicit drugs. If a country "demonstrably fails" in its anti-drug commitments, it can be included in the Major's List as non-cooperative.

Although it does not entail automatic sanctions, decertification can generate specific consequences contemplated by law: partial suspension of foreign assistance, impacts on multilateral relations with banks and other organizations, and, in certain cases, trade impacts, if the U.S. government so deems appropriate.

Colombia has been certified, with waivers or waivers, for more than three decades, except during 1996 and 1997, during President Samper's administration. However, factors such as the increase in illicit cocaine cultivation, cocaine production, and the lack of substantial progress in the fight against drugs have revived the debate over the threat of possible decertification.

According to the U.S. Department of State (2025), while Colombia reached a record number of cocaine seizures (960 tons, a 23% increase compared to 2023), coca cultivation grew by 10%, reaching 253.000 hectares, and pure cocaine production reached historic levels. Today, Colombia is the world's largest producer of both coca crops and cocaine.

What implications would a possible decertification have for Colombian companies?

From a trade perspective, decertification does not entail the imposition of tariffs. However, it can generate uncertainty, indirect barriers to trade, and affect international market perceptions. The suspension or slowdown of cooperation programs (USAID), the reduction of support from multilateral organizations, and an increase in country risk are possible effects, even without explicit measures.

Furthermore, the Trump administration has publicly announced an additional 10% tariff on imports from countries that align with the policies of the BRICS bloc, without distinction. Although Colombia is not a member, its possible rapprochement and application for admission to the BRICS Bank have raised diplomatic and commercial concerns, especially due to the impact this measure could have on sectors highly dependent on the U.S. market.

Additionally, President Trump announced he will impose new 30% tariffs on Mexico, effective August 1. He made this announcement via social media, reiterating that Mexico "has not done enough" to secure the border between the two countries and combat fentanyl trafficking to the U.S. Trump also asserted that "Mexico has not yet stopped the cartels trying to turn all of North America into a drug playground."

A symbolic decertification? What would and wouldn't happen

The precedent of decertification during President Samper's administration takes us back to another era and different circumstances: bilateral aid was suspended, loans from multilateral banks were blocked, visa restrictions were imposed, as well as other diplomatic and cooperation limitations. Although tariffs were not imposed, international risk perceptions increased, and access to financing became more difficult for both the public and private sectors.

Currently, a similar scenario cannot be ruled out. The law provides for action based on "national security," so any type of sanction or trade measure is on the table. However, to date, it is uncertain what kind of measures the US government will take, although it is hoped that, thanks to "private sector diplomacy," these will be gradual and take into account the devastating consequences for the export sector and, in general, the Colombian economy.

Keys to strengthening business resilience

Colombian companies with significant exposure to the U.S. market can strengthen their resilience through preemptive measures such as:

• Obtain international certifications (BASC, ISO 37001, OEA, CTPAT)
• Take advantage of existing mechanisms such as Vallejo Plan, International Marketing Companies, Free Trade Zones, drawback and current FTAs
• Include contractual clauses to distribute political risk
• Use international insurance against regulatory and commercial risks
• Strengthen relations with binational chambers and business forums in the U.S.
• Explore alternative logistics and trade destinations, including the Caribbean and Puerto Rico

The bilateral relationship in figures: a strategic economic link

The bilateral relationship between Colombia and the United States is characterized by a friendship spanning more than 200 years, and the United States is our main trading and investment partner. Colombia and the United States have one of the most solid trade relations. The U.S. market has historically been not only the main destination for Colombian exports but also a major source of strategic imports, foreign direct investment, and economic cooperation. This interdependence has created integrated value chains, stable logistics flows, and opportunities for preferential access to the U.S. market in key sectors.

Between January and April 2025, Colombian exports to the United States reached US$4.886 billion, consolidating the country's position as the country's main trading partner during that period. This trade, however, is highly concentrated: 32 companies generated 65% of the export value, and more than 90% of foreign sales came from sectors such as oil, gold, coffee, flowers, and bananas.

During the same period, the use of trade facilitation instruments has been limited. Only 13 companies utilized the Vallejo Plan; none were registered as qualified users in free trade zones; and only 9 were operating as international traders. These mechanisms, available under the Colombian foreign trade regime, offer operational, tax, and logistical advantages that may be relevant in contexts of trade uncertainty.

Regarding imports, between January and March 2025, Colombia purchased goods from the United States worth US$3.746 billion. In 2024, imports from this country reached US$15.526 billion, with products such as unleaded gasoline, yellow corn, diesel, natural gas, oils, soybean residues, medicines, meats, and aircraft stand out.

The bilateral relationship is also reflected in foreign direct investment flows. According to ProColombia, between 2012 and June 2024, the United States accounted for 41,8% of the FDI received in Colombia. Bogotá, Antioquia, Atlántico, and Valle del Cauca accounted for 73% of these resources. The sectors with the highest participation in projects were business services (88), software and IT services (85), communications (41), financial services (24), and consumer products (23).

Final reflection: a strategic relationship that requires a vision from a business perspective

The United States remains Colombia's main trading partner: in 2024, Colombian exports to that market totaled US$14.336 billion, representing more than a third of the country's total exports. In addition to trade in goods, the bilateral relationship encompasses foreign direct investment, technology transfer, integration of production chains, and institutional cooperation at various levels.

Faced with uncertain scenarios such as decertification, it is crucial that Colombian companies not only stay informed, but also activate tools to mitigate risks and act strategically. Colombia has mechanisms such as the Vallejo Plan, free trade zones, International Trading Companies, free trade agreements, and current bilateral agreements. Using them strategically can translate into tax benefits, logistics improvements, and greater international competitiveness.

Maintaining this relationship is not the sole responsibility of the government: it is a shared effort that requires business preparedness, long-term vision, and the timely activation of available instruments. Resilience begins with action.

Do you want to prepare your company for potential decertification scenarios and protect your international trade operations? Learn how Araújo Ibarra can help you with strategic advice and legal tools.

👉 Visit our website .

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) 

1. What is decertification by the U.S.?

It is a legal mechanism by which the U.S. annually evaluates the counternarcotics cooperation of other countries. If a country "demonstrably fails," it can be included on the "Major's List" as non-cooperative. 

2. Does decertification entail automatic penalties?

Not directly. However, it can have consequences such as suspension of foreign aid, restricted access to multilateral organizations, and damage to its international image. 

3. How would this affect Colombia's international trade?

It could increase the perception of risk, create indirect barriers, and affect exports, especially to the U.S. 

4. What can companies do to prepare?

Obtain international certifications, use instruments such as Plan Vallejo, explore new markets, and secure their operations against regulatory risks. 

5. Which sectors would be most impacted?

Primarily the sectors that depend on the US market: oil, coffee, bananas, flowers and gold. 

Glossary  

• Decertification: US mechanism for rating countries' counternarcotics cooperation. 

• Vallejo Plan: Colombian regime that allows the import of inputs without tariffs for exportable products. 

• BRICS: Group of emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. 

• CTPAT: Customs trade alliance to secure international supply chains. 

• Country risk: A measure of a nation's level of economic, political, and financial risk. 

Article prepared by Araújo Ibarra International Business Consultants.

Fonts

• AmCham. (2025). What is the US decertification of Colombia and what are its implications? https://amchamcartagena.org/en/what-is-the-decertification-of-the-united-states-to-colombia-and-what-are-its-implications/?utm_source
• Araújo Ibarra. (2025). Special Bulletin: US announces new tariffs on countries with which it maintains trade deficits. Special Bulletin: US announces new tariffs on countries with which it maintains trade deficits
• US Department of State. (2025). International Narcotics Control Strategy Report – Volume I. Available in: https://www.state.gov/international-narcotics-control-strategy-reports/
• UNODC. (2024). SIMCI: Monitoring Territories with Presence of Coca Crops 2023. Available in:https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Colombia/Colombia_survey_report_EN_2023.pdf?utm_source